Wind turbine end-of-life:

Wind power is growing fast all over the world, and in Sweden alone thousands of turbines has been installed the last few decades. Although the number of decommissioned turbines so far is very low, the rapid installation rate indicates that a similar rapid decommissioning rate is to be expected shortly. If the waste material from these turbines is not handled sustainably the whole concept of wind power as a clean energy alternative is challenged. This study aims to present an accurate estimate of the amounts of waste material that will be generated from wind turbines in Sweden during the coming decades, allowing the waste management industry to plan for this and by extension prevent unnecessary energy losses through imperfect waste treatment. It should also present helpful information on how problematic waste can be reduced or avoided. VindStat’s annual report, presenting installation date and other relevant data for most installed turbines in Sweden, has been used as the base for the calculations. Information on material composition in different types and sizes of wind turbines has been extracted from various life cycle assessments, and by using the available parameters in the data base each turbine has been assigned a specific amount of steel, iron, copper, aluminum, blade material and electronics. An average life time of 20 years has been assumed, based on prior research and comparison with empiric data, and the material of each turbine is therefore seen as generated waste 20 years after installation date. To calculate the amount of waste material from replacing faulty components, empiric data over replacement rates in further developed markets has been combined with a prognosis over future development of installed wind capacity in Sweden based on a method described by prior research. As no sufficient way to predict how the future second hand market for turbines and components has been found, three different possible scenarios have been investigated to see how this may affect waste amounts. The results show that annual waste will grow slowly at about 12 % increase per year until around 2026, and then the average increase is 41 % per year until 2034. By then, annual waste amounts are estimated to have reached 237 600 tonne steel and iron (16 % of currently recycled amounts), 2 300 tonne aluminium (4 %), 3 300 tonne copper (5 %), 343 tonne electronics (<1 %) and 28 100 tonne blade material. There is no industrial scale recycling method for commonly used blade materials, and a high strength steel developed by Sandvik is proposed as a fully recyclable material to consider for further research. A well-functioning second hand market is shown to possibly have a major impact on waste amounts, at least in postponing it until better recycling systems are in place.